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Interview Of Novinite.com With Curtis M., CEO And Managing Partner At Arceland, An Asset Management Fund Based In Sofia, Bulgaria, And Member Of The Bulgarian Land And Property Owners Organisation.
Other companies are based abroad and your office is in Bulgaria, would you say this is an issue or an advantage?
That is an advantage. In the beginning of the transition following the fall of communism it was very conventional for foreign law firms, foreign investment firms, project firms, to come, stay 10 days, go back, come stay ten days - the economies of these areas have grown to the point where you cannot do that, you have to be here 24 / 7, so we think being here full time is a practical requirement to be useful.
The situation in Bulgaria is dynamic, it changes every day and if you are back in America, or London, or some other place, you are behind, I mean it. So the facility to stay realtime, current with what is happening on the marketplace, is vital.
I think we have to be clear - it isn't as attractive as it used to be 3 years back. 3 years ago there had been a massive influx of what I call "hot money" round the EU advent.
People got awfully excited and extrapolated that Bulgaria is going to be like the United Kingdom or something like this... Not so fast! Probably a lot of money came in too swiftly.
Then we had this devastating financial emergency that affected everyone, particularly in Bulgaria it affected commercial banks, so credit was dried out. Our perspective of that's that that period is now gone and that money is now gone.
Now the driver for values of real estate is really income levels and domestic demand of Bulgarians. The bad news is that Bulgarians are the least wealthy folk in the EU therefore it begins at a really low level.
But the better news is the growth in that earnings is one of the speediest because it is from such a low base so as a % it is growing quicker than in the ECU generally.
Take as an example the Bulgarian government's suggestion to extend the minimum wage by 12.5% in Sep - that is an astronomic figure as a %.
In most states it is one, two or 3 p.c., so that tells you that there is large room to grow for these wages and as folk have more income to spend.
Then the value of things they buy goes up with it, so we think the cost of real-estate will stabilize at a growth rate of 5-6% and that is a reliable, understandable, and convincing number for a decade, in opposition to twenty p.c. or thirty percent or 40% for 18 months or so.
So we think, long term, if growth rates some place else are at 4% or 5%, Bulgaria will be 2 or 3 points above that as a %.
You have to differentiate between types of real-estate. I believe probably the soundest investment in Bulgarian real-estate at this time is farming. It is farm land.
Bulgaria has a giant potential that's unsatisfied at about that point in terms of its rural development. This is one type of property.
On the other hand, if you want to chat about home, or commercial, or office - those are very different stories.
We went along in the retail sector, we have been awfully underserved as a square meters per person. Now we have that great explosion of retail space n the year, especially in Sofia.
There are 3 or 4 malls which have been delivered in the year so I suspect we are at a balance now. I suspect there's more retail capacity than perhaps the town can absorb fast so that will be a rather more tricky area.
The same applies for offices because so many of these complexes are office and retail together. There has been a great delivery of inventory particularly in the Class A level, office, and again you see a pointed drop in lease rates, rental rates, because there is so much supply competing for good tenants.
Overtly, the things which are Bulgarian are basically in quite an excellent condition. Conducting business here is fair. There are areas to be improved, there are the courts, but the practical business environment in Bulgaria is better than is often considered.
I would say the biggest obstruction we faced isn't domestic. It is the fact that Bulgaria has a appalling image globally which we think is very removed from reality but sadly there's no countervailing voice.
We get worried because we see regularly on BBC, on CNN and the Pink Un very aggressive promotion of Croatia, of Macedonia - all these neighboring states, none of whom have as good a story as Bulgaria. Croatia is extremely special country, because she offers a good marketplace for Croatia real estate.
But the single thing you ever read about in those publications about Bulgaria is about crime, about the mafia, or entire stories that get recycled and recycled. So when we are going to call for investment for potential partakers in the economy here they start from a negative position. We spend an enormous period of time training them about the realities here.
It would be much in Bulgaria's interest to be much more aggressive about presenting itself internationally. Because it is actually a miles better story. Especially in areas like public finance, the nation's bank, the currency - those things since the crisis in 1997 and 1998 have been incredible success stories. And little publicity or understanding about that outside Bulgaria. So we think this is a story that isn't told much, and when it is told, it is told poorly. Our largest challenge, I suspect, as a business attracting global investment is getting over that image issue, reported tagza.com.
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